Al Gore, Scientist
Al Gore recently spoke in San Francisco on the subject of global warming and its effects on the hurricane cycle. Would somebody please tell me where he went to school so I can be certain not to send my kids there?
Gore, obviously still bitter after all these years, wants desperately to push his agenda on global warming and will force fit material evidence in order to make his case, even if that material evidence is taken out of context. I am sorry, but I just can’t respect a man that manipulates reality to fit his own little fantasy world.
After a number of pointless rants and rhetoric in his speech [full text here], he flat out says “science does not definitively tell us that global warming increases the frequency of hurricanes.” He mentions the multi decadal cycle as well.
Here’s what I think we here understand about Hurricane Katrina and global warming. Yes, it is true that no single hurricane can be blamed on global warming. Hurricanes have come for a long time, and will continue to come in the future. Yes, it is true that the science does not definitively tell us that global warming increases the frequency of hurricanes - because yes, it is true there is a multi-decadal cycle, twenty to forty years that profoundly affects the number of hurricanes that come in any single hurricane season. But it is also true that the science is extremely clear now, that warmer oceans make the average hurricane stronger, not only makes the winds stronger, but dramatically increases the moisture from the oceans evaporating into the storm - thus magnifying its destructive power - makes the duration, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, stronger.
He says that “no single hurricane can be blamed on global warming,” but since he has no data to back his claim, that is precisely the direction he has to go. He implies that the multi-decadal cycle of hurricanes is only relative to the frequency, not the intensity, of hurricanes. But according to the NOAA data on hurricanes, Gore’s statement is entirely his own misguided opinion and does little to support his hypothesis. Yes, Katrina did strengthen to a category 5 while in the Gulf, but was a Cat 4 hurricane at landfall. Below is a chart made from the data available from the NOAA showing, by decade, hurricanes that made land fall in the US. [Major includes category 3,4&5 hurricanes.]
Now go back the NOAA and review the most intense hurricanes to hit the US. Sorry, but I am not seeing a trend toward bigger, more destructive hurricanes there, either. Yes, Katrina was one of the stongest hurricanes to hit the US. But it was precisely that - ONE OF. So based on the NOAA data, Gore’s point just doesn’t withstand scrutiny. In the world of children’s literature, there is a name for people like Al Gore - Chicken Little.
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